Over the next 10 years, Aviation Week Intelligence Network Fleet & Data Services forecasts deliveries of more than 7,900 business jets and 2,700 turboprops, for a total of 10,600 aircraft valued at $240 billion.
Molly McMillin
Phenom 300 Credit: Embraer
The forecast includes the period from 2022 through 2031.
Business jet and turboprop deliveries are projected to remain stunted early in the forecast because of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a forecast of 896 business jets and turboprops delivered in 2022. But that will rise to more than 1,000 in 2023, with a steady rate increase throughout the remaining forecast years.
Manufacturers are expected to deliver 714 business jets in 2021, up from 640 in 2020 but down from 782 in 2019, according to projections. Deliveries are not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2024, but are projected to then trend upward through the remainder of the decade.
“Turbofans (jets) will see their unit deliveries increase steadily after 2023,” says Brian Kough, Aviation Week senior director of forecasts and aerospace insights. “From pandemic lows of about 640 in 2020, jets will gain 200 more deliveries per year by 2031, rising to over 840 aircraft in 2031.”
By segment, demand will be greatest for light jets, with 31.5% of total deliveries, or one in three aircraft, followed by single-engine turboprops at 25.6%, large jets at 23.3%, medium jets at 19.1% and business airliners at 0.5%.
By manufacturer, Textron Aviation is projected to deliver the highest number of business jets and turboprops over the decade with 2,573 aircraft, or 24.2% of total deliveries, followed by Gulfstream with 1,512 deliveries, Pilatus Aircraft at 1,231, Bombardier at 1,174 and Embraer with 1,059 shipments.
The five most-delivered aircraft over the 10-year-period include the Cirrus Vision SF50 jet with 960 aircraft, followed by the Pilatus PC-12 at 670, Pilatus PC-24 with 561, Cessna Citation Latitude with 512 and the Phenom 300 with 487.
By region, North America will have the largest share of the market at 68% with 7,224 deliveries of business jets and turboprops, followed by Western Europe with 1,645 deliveries, or 15.5% of the market, Latin America with 798 deliveries or 7.5%, followed by Asia-Pacific with 318 deliveries, or 3%.
By engine manufacturer, the forecast projects Pratt & Whitney Canada with the largest share of the market with 40.2% of deliveries over the next 10 years, followed by Williams International with 21.1%, Honeywell with 16.6%, Rolls-Royce with 12.6%, GE Honda at 3.7% and CFM International with 0.4% of the market.
Meanwhile, the global in-service fleet of turboprops and business jets is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 0.6% during the forecast period, down from a 1.3% growth rate in the previous decade. The fleet, totaling 33,008 in 2021, is expected to grow to 35,770 aircraft by 2031.
Demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul services declined in 2020 and 2021 with international travel restrictions, Kough says. MRO demand, however, is expected to recover in line with aircraft utilization over the early years of the forecast and total $112 billion over the 10-year period.
MRO demand is expected to grow at a 1.7% compound annual growth rate over the decade and reflect the recovery in demand from 2022 to 2023. Large jet MRO services is expected to be the last to return to prepandemic levels
Modifications to the in-service fleet are projected to generate the largest amount of MRO demand during the decade at $35.3 billion, or 31% of total demand; engine maintenance is projected to account for $31.8 billion, or 28% of demand; components are expected to account for $26.5 billion, or 24% of demand; while airframe maintenance is projected to total $18.7 billion over the decade, or 17% of demand, Aviation Week says.