NHF Snapshot
Global pork trade in flux
U.S. disruption sends ripples worldwide
By Christine McCracken
The old saying that “There are decades where nothing happens, and then there are weeks where decades happen” perfectly captures the current state of the global pork industry. Since President Trump returned to office in January, the pace and scale of change have been remarkable. For United States hog and pork producers, keeping up with the evolving trade and regulatory environment has become a full-time job, and the effects will be felt far beyond American borders.
At the heart of the disruption is the renewed trade conflict between the U.S. and China. In 2024, the U.S. was China’s second largest pork supplier, exporting nearly 445 thousand tons of pork and variety meats valued at USD 1.1 billion. Nearly two-thirds of these exports were offal items with few alternative markets and limited domestic sales outlets. Fortunately, the U.S. avoided the worst-case scenario of 172 percent tariffs on most pork items and has regained access to the Chinese market after a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs was announced on May 14, 2025.
Tariffs on U.S. pork exports to China now stand at 20%, in addition to the 47% they averaged before this latest trade development. While this removes some near-term uncertainty for U.S. exporters, the temporary nature of the tariff pause, and ongoing geopolitical volatility will keep the industry on edge.
This lack of visibility complicates the planning for producers and those serving the industry across the global supply chain.
The impact of rising geopolitical tensions also extends well beyond pork exports. China is also a major supplier of feed ingredients, equipment and critical components for U.S. producers and packers. The ongoing trade feud strains supply chains and increases input costs, compounding the challenges faced by American producers.
Despite initial fears, the new administration’s policies on trade, regulation and labor have not been as severe as anticipated. Still, uncertainty remains high, and the global pork market is beginning to adjust in response.
Winners and losers in the global pork marketAs the U.S. loses ground in China due to heightened trade tensions, other exporters are expected to step in. Imports from Europe and China’s BRICS partners, Brazil and Russia, are expected to play an increasingly prominent role in supplying pork to the world’s largest importer. Trade flows are already shifting, with up to 200 thousand tons of additional European pork expected to move into China in 2025.
Brazilian producers also expected to gain share in the Chinese pork market as they maintain favorable trade access, potentially capturing up to 200 thousand tons of additional exports to China. Like the U.S., Canadian pork exports face stiff retaliatory tariffs into China, with a 25% levy negatively impacting trade in the near term. While export demand in China is expected to remain steady, slower imports from the US and Canada will drive the shift in suppliers.
The only constraint for alternative pork exporters is availability, with global pork supplies expected to grow only modestly in 2025. Limited additional production volume will likely lead to a redistribution of trade flows and higher pork prices in Europe, Brazil and Russia. For the EU, we anticipate a modest (2-3% YOY) decline in pork supplies in 2025. Similarly, we anticipate only 1-2% growth in Brazilian pork production as local producers continue to operate only slightly above breakeven. Even Russia, which had seen a rebound in profitability is expected to post only modest growth in production given ongoing health challenges.
With limited supply growth anticipated globally and a larger share of Chinese imports expected to be sourced from the EU, Brazil, and Russia, U.S. and Canadian producers are expected to backfill markets formerly supplied by the EU and Brazil. As direct consequence of the trade disruption, we expect the U.S. and Canada to lose market share in China, sending displaced pork volumes into other established markets in East Asia and Latin America at a discount. However, some trading partners may be less inclined to buy American pork, potentially limiting overall trade for the remainder of 2025.
Slower U.S. and Canadian pork exports to China are expected to exert modest pressure on offal prices and fresh meat values, further pressuring the cutout. This will depend on trade relationships between suppliers and Asian buyers, and pork availability in producing regions. Trade disruption could also push pork prices higher in China, although with European, Brazilian and Russian pork acting as an offset we expect limited price appreciation in China. Limited additional availability will likely lead to a redistribution of trade flows (a reduction in intra-European trade to redirect exports outside the EU) and an increase in pork prices in both markets.
For EU and Brazilian pork producers and exporters, this should be a positive, especially as we anticipate slightly improving feed costs over the year. For the further processing industry, however, higher pork prices will likely pressure margins.
Aside from the direct trade impact on the pork sector, the effects of heightened global trade tensions could have a far higher and more prolonged economic impact. As we have seen in the past, supply chain disruptions often have a long tail. The lack of visibility around policy and product availability is already impacting consumer confidence, distorting trade and weighing on market expectations for the balance of the year.
While our baseline expectation is for continued volatility until U.S. trade goals are achieved, any progress in cementing more favorable terms could also work to set a higher benchmark for growth. For U.S. producers this likely implies ongoing volatility, slower exports and continued planning difficulties. For producers outside the U.S., however, this could be yet another opportunity to capture export market share and an incentive for growth.
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McCracken is a senior analyst – animal protein for Rabobank.
