A total of 1,127 Group 4 and 5 UAVs will be delivered through 2032 with the U.S. market valued at $9.1 billion and sales to international operators valued at $21.3 billion.
Unlike many other mission markets dominated by two to three primes, the UAV market is highly diverse with a mix of Israel, European, Turkish, Chinese and U.S. primes. Boeing’s MQ-25 is expected to be the most valuable UAV program over the decade with 40 deliveries to the U.S. Navy through 2032 worth $6.7 billion. Growth in the unmanned tanker program is expected to come at the cost of Northrop’s MQ-4C Triton.
The Navy had outlined an initial program of record (POR) for 68 Tritons. However, budgetary constraints, concurrency with the type’s mission systems and survivability concerns following Iran’s 2019 shoot down of an RQ-4 may have contributed to the Joint Requirement Oversight Council’s reassessment of the MQ-4’s POR. Aviation Week assess significant cuts to the MQ-4C later in the decade with a POR reflecting a more tailored EP-3 replacement. Northrop’s losses in the MQ-4C are expected to be partially offset by its Penetrating-ISR or RQ-180 program for the USAF. The service is planning on replacing its nine RQ-4 Block 40s and 31 U-2s by 2027.
MENA is expected to generate the largest demand for Group 4 and 5 platforms over the decade. Human rights and Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) concerns have historically limited the ability of U.S. primes to compete in this region. Chinese and Turkish platforms have largely filled that void. The reproachment of Israeli-Gulf ties following the Abraham Accords may enable Elbit and IAI to expand their exports to the region.
India’s unstated requirement to replace its 50 Heron 1s around 2030 is the largest opportunity in the forecast at $1 billion. The Indian Air Force first began receiving Heron 1s in the early to mid-2000s. The USAF’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) is the largest stated requirement with $800 million in projected deliveries from 2030-2032.