The global fleet of military aircraft is projected to increase by 5.1% over the next 10 years, rising from 54,497 aircraft in 2022 to 59,098 by the end of 2032. Within that overall fleet the number of large Group 4 and Group 5 uncrewed air vehicles (UAVs) is projected to expand by 60.9% from 1,854 at present to 2,984 primarily driven by the drive to enhance and expand persistent surveillance capabilities.
Fleet growth is expected to be fastest in Asia where rising defense spending is expected to enable both the modernisation and expansion of air power capabilities over the next decade.
The number of aircraft in service in Asia-Pacific is expected to increase by 10.3% and in South Asia by 12.3%. The only region where the number of aircraft in service is expected to decline is Russia & CIS where the fleet is expected to fall by 8.4% from 4,319 in 2023 to 3,940 by the end of the decade as legacy aircraft are withdrawn without a one-for-one replacement.
In terms of mission segments the number of tankers, armed UAVs and attack helicopters in service is expected to see significant growth over the decade. Mission segments where fleets are expected to decline over the decade include bomber, fixed wing transport and training aircraft fleets.
The fastest growing family of aircraft will be the F-35 multirole fighter with the number of aircraft in service set to increase by 132% reaching 2,470 aircraft by 2032, making the type the second largest global fleet behind the S-70/H-60 family of platforms. The fastest declining major fleets are expected to be the F-5, F/A-18 and Huey which are anticipated to see a 80%, 32% and 25% reduction in the number of aircraft in service respectively.
