The worst HPAI outbreak in U.S. history takes another bite out of turkey supplies.
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Since the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) began this spring, more than 7.5 million turkeys have been depopulated in an effort to mitigate the disease. That number continues to climb, with new cases being announced weekly.
According to a new research brief from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, these losses are just the latest blow to the national turkey flock, which was already shrinking due to a series of production challenges and industry contraction in recent years. The combination of tight supplies and strong holiday demand will send retail turkey prices to record highs this year, the firm said. Seasonal cold storage inventories of whole birds are at their lowest level since 2006, and wholesale prices for frozen turkeys are currently running about 30% higher than last year.
“The good news is that we do not anticipate a shortage of turkeys for the holidays this year,” said Brian Earnest, lead animal protein economist with CoBank. “But they will definitely be more expensive and probably a bit smaller than what consumers are used to seeing in their grocers’ meat case.”
Over the last decade, the retail price for whole turkeys has historically hovered between $0.90 - $1.00/lb. ahead of Thanksgiving. In its Oct. 21 National Retail Report, USDA put the price of frozen turkeys at $1.58/lb. That’s up 47% compared to the same time last year and would drive the average price of a 20-lb. bird $10 higher to $31.50.
In addition to higher prices, CoBank said turkeys are smaller this year. Since the outbreaks began, the average slaughter weight has dropped by about one pound. And HPAI has hit larger, heavier toms harder than hens. Compared to the three-year average, cumulative tom slaughter is down 9.8% in 2022, while hens are down only 2.3%. In total, year-to-date turkey production in pounds is down 5% versus last year. If this trend holds, 2022 U.S. turkey production will drop 9.6%, the largest annual reduction since 2009.
Declining turkey production amid unrelenting consumer demand for meat and poultry has taken a significant bite of whole bird inventory volumes. As of Sept. 30, frozen whole turkey inventory stocks stood at 239 million lbs. That’s an 8% drop from 2021 and 19% below the 2018-2021 average. But the effect on prices seems far more dramatic than the supply shrinkage. All cuts of turkey have surged higher since spring. Fresh, boneless breast meat is trading at $6.50/lb. – an astonishing 350% increase versus last fall.
Earnest said the one wildcard for retail prices of whole turkeys this holiday season is grocer price promotions. Historically, retailers have used frozen turkeys as a “loss leader” around the holidays. However, grocers are facing their own inflationary pressures.