Nearly 10 million layers have been depopulated since November due to avian influenza
By Krissa Welshans
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues to make its mark on the U.S. egg industry. The latest USDA “Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook” showed October table-egg production declined 4.2% from October 2012. The average size of the table-egg flock was estimated at 308.3 million layers, down 5.1% from last year.
According to the outlook, the November 1 table-egg layer flock was estimated at almost 309.0 million layers, only marginally higher than the September 1 estimated flock. However, this estimate did not account for the early and late November HPAI outbreaks that resulted in the loss of 2.72 million layers. Further, an additional 3.63 million layers have been depopulated since the beginning of December.
USDA economists noted that recent data on the table-layer flock inventory, its productivity, and egg-type chicks hatched suggest that producers—despite record-high wholesale prices—are taking a cautious approach to expanding production in the near-term. At 1.96 billion dozen eggs, the forecast for the current quarter was unchanged from last month. However, USDA revised lower the 2023 table-egg production forecast to 8.17 billion dozen, about 5.5% higher than the 2022 forecast.
Record high wholesale table egg prices
Pressured by tighter-than-usual shell egg inventories, robust demand stemming from the holiday baking season and from exports, USDA reported that wholesale egg prices have kept climbing with little signs of cooling off. Daily New York wholesale egg prices (Grade A, large) gained 78 cents during November, but have since spiked even higher. On Dec. 22, the average price reported by USDA was $5.40/doz. Midwest wholesale prices followed a similar pattern, also establishing record high-values.
Overall, USDA reported that daily New York large, grade A wholesale egg prices averaged $3.98 per dozen in November, a 216% increase from last November and almost a 19% increase from October average prices. Given the current record-high wholesale prices, USDA increase its Q4 price forecast to $3.95 per dozen. This brings the 2022 average wholesale price forecast to $2.78, a 135% increase from 2021 average prices. Looking to 2023, USDA is forecasting the average wholesale price forecast at $1.94/dozen, a 30% decrease from the 2022 forecast.
