Pork producers wary about expansion amid economic, political concerns
RaboResearch anticipates the global pork supply to grow less than 1% this year.
Pork producers around the globe are taking a cautious, yet strategic approach, to expansion in 2025 as uncertainty surrounding crop production, tariffs and trade, and lingering domestic and foreign animal diseases remains. Instead, producers are prioritizing productivity, cost efficiency and meeting changing consumer needs, according to the latest RaboResearch report, Global Pork Quarterly Q1 2025.
Despite modest growth this year, Chenjun Pan, senior analyst – animal protein for RaboResearch and lead author of the report, projects positive production conditions. “Manageable feed grain prices and improved animal health are expected to support stable global pork supply, which is forecast to grow by less than 1% this year. Regional supply and demand balances vary, with sufficient supply in the U.S., China and Brazil, and tighter supply in the EU, Japan and the Philippines.”
Pan notes retaliatory tariffs on agricultural goods, including pork, are likely following President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies. A ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could also add uncertainty to global grain prices, and in turn to pork production and feed sourcing.
Besides geopolitical tensions, disease remains a major risk for exporting countries. For example, the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Germany has led to several pork import suspensions and a drop in hog prices for the country’s pork producers, even though the disease was detected in water buffaloes.
With disease challenges continuing to persist, Pan sees more large-scale farms adopting technology for early diagnosis as well as to monitor animal health and productivity.
For Q1 2025 and beyond, Pan says watch for feed grain prices falling slightly from 2024 levels, rising inflation putting downward pressure on market demand in some regions, and the supply of alternative proteins, especially beef, to be tight this year, which will support pork consumption.
As for U.S. pork production, RaboResearch expects the industry to see a slight uptick in hog supplies and weights that will drive moderate gains in the first quarter. “Average slaughter weights are currently up 0.3% versus year-ago, despite packer-owned hog weights continuing to trailer prior-year levels. A significant increase in weaned pig prices to begin this year suggests pig supplies are falling short of current needs,” Pan notes.
RaboResearch anticipates strong U.S. pork export shipments will continue ahead of any tariff action from key trading partners, however the strong U.S. dollar will likely face export challenges this year in key Asian markets, Japan and South Korea.
In other key markets, pork prices are expected to vary across regions, driven largely in part by the balance of supply and demand:
Mexico: A new sow inventory should force prices down in Q2 2025, with 1% year-over-year growth expected for the year. Imports ended 2024 strong, but will face headwinds in 2025, especially with the Trump administration’s potential tariffs. “While there is limited clarity around both countries’ trade polies, the previous 20% tariff on pork imports in 2018 added costs to the industry and slowed trade. The immediate impact of tariffs will likely be limited as markets look for alternative suppliers, but the U.S. will likely lose the market share in Mexico,” Pan projects.
Canada: Production should stay steady as the industry adjusts to new slaughter levels, down 4% YOY in the east and 1.2% YOY in the west, from reduced packer capacity. If tariffs are widely applied, RaboResearch expects the impact to be moderate, in part to the strong interdependent relationship with U.S. pork production. However, the agribusiness analysts foresee Canada benefitting from less competitive U.S. pork exports to the rest of the world.
China: Pork prices are expected to weaken in 2025, due to an increased market supply of pork meat, improved productivity and a slightly bigger sow herd. Pork imports may stay flat as China’s antidumping probe on EU pork continues, and the U.S. awaits tit-for-tat reaction from trade policy. “This could particularly affect U.S. pork variety meat, which accounts for 26% of China’s total pork variety meat imports,” Pan notes.
South Korea: Political turmoil and economic uncertainty may weigh on pork sales in 2025. The U.S. remains the largest supplier of pork and pork variety meats to the country. However, RaboResearch foresees a weaker won and ongoing trade uncertainty negatively impacting 2025 imports.
Japan: Household pork consumption is expected to be robust, while production will remain flat. “Retail demand for imported chilled picnic and belly is strong because domestic pork prices are expected to remain high. However, import volumes have been relatively low because of the depreciation of the yen, leading to a tight supply,” Pan notes.
Southeast Asia: Vietnamese pork prices should continue to stay strong driven by both tight supply and strong demand. The Philippines is still contending with biosecurity issues surrounding African swine fever, but pork demand is expected to improve as inflation drops.
Europe: During the first week of 2025, the average EU pig carcass price was down 9% YOY. Pork demand should see a seasonal uptick in the middle of Q1 2025, aiding pig prices. However, trade restrictions imposed on German pork following the recent FMD outbreak has put downward pressure on prices in Germany and the Netherlands.
Brazil: The largest country in South America has seen significant advances in both domestic and external pork demand in recent years. “Export volumes from 2018 to 2024 increased 106%, or by about 700,000 metric tons, while the domestic market in the same period saw a 17% increase in consumption, or about 640,000 metric tons,” Pan highlights.
