Large cuts still seem unlikely
While fiscal pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic will add to the downward pressures on spending, U.S. budget cuts on the same scale as those following the 2008 financial crisis are highly unlikely given the difference in global operational posture. FY2021 already indicated a flat outlook before the pandemic hit.
Aviation Week analysts estimate that there will be real terms cut of around 6% between 2022 and 2024 before any growth returns.
