The scale of the in-service fleets of both the 737 and A320 will drive the highest number of retirements over the decade. A useful measure is comparing to the active, remaining fleet. Despite the large number of both of these aircraft leaving passenger service, the number of retirements in relation to the share of the active fleet as of 2023 is relatively low at 31% for the 737 and 26% for the A320.
By comparison, the number of retirements in relation to the 2023 in-service fleet for the 757 and SAAB 340 both stand at 98%. The Beech 1900 and 767 are at 56%, as these aircraft are gradually withdrawn over the course of the forecast.
Meanwhile, 181 747s will leave service to be retired out of a fleet of 363 aircraft in 2023.
Within the retirement total, over 1,400 commercial aircraft are expected to be converted to freighter configurations over the 10-year forecast period – a steep increase in comparison to recent forecasts. Conversions are primarily for 737s, A320s, 767s and A330s.
These are delineated as “fleet exits” and “fleet entries” in the online dashboard tool. If you do not have access to the 2023 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, you can learn more about it at aviationweek.com/Forecasts.
