Climate change and beef production in the Midwest
What are some adaptation strategies to limit the impacts?
By Trent W. Ford and Zack T. Leasor
The climate of virtually every region on Earth has changed since the turn of the industrial revolution, in response to global warming. The last century and a half of climate change in the Midwest has seen increases in temperature and precipitation, but also changes in the frequency and intensity of weather extremes such as heat waves and heavy rainfall.
Understanding how climate change causes impacts to livestock in the Midwest, and beef production specifically, is complicated because of the diversity of management practices. However, livestock are likely to be impacted by multiple climate change factors, including from heat stress, forage quality, and disease, among others (Wuebbles et al. 2021).
This article will briefly summarize Midwest climate change in the recent past and near future, discuss livestock impacts from temperature and precipitation changes, and present adaptive measures proposed to ensure healthy and sustainable production in the face of a changing climate.
Temperature changesAir temperature has increased in the Midwest over the past century and a half. Concurrent increases in humidity and temperature have the potential to increase animal exposure to extreme heat and cause heat stress impacts. Heat stress reduces livestock productivity and can suppress animal immunity to infection and disease (Bagath et al. 2019).
The Midwest region is experiencing longer and more frequent periods with potentially hazardous temperatures and heat index values. As Figure 1 shows from Quincy in western Illinois, the number of hours with heat index values above 90 degrees has increased across the entire warm season. Additionally, potentially impactful heat is occurring more frequently outside of the summer season, both before June and after August, increasing the heat exposure risk to animals early and late in the season (Figure 1).
Nighttime temperatures have increased at a faster rate than daytime temperatures in the Midwest, reducing nighttime cooling and relief for livestock (Table 1). Model projections indicate a high likelihood of continued warming in the Midwest throughout the 21st century, especially continued increasing nighttime temperatures. For example, models project an additional 15 to 30 nights with a minimum temperature above 70° in the central Midwest by 2050 (Wuebbles et al. 2021). The overall amount of warming and corresponding increase in livestock heat exposure is dependent on greenhouse gas emissions, with considerably larger risk without a substantial reduction in global emissions in the next decade or two.
Warming trends in winter and spring have also caused a decrease in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold and an overall reduced risk of extreme cold exposure. Less frequent and extreme spring cold, for example, could have positive impacts on spring calving (Wichman et al. 2022) and reduce the demand for supplemental feed in the winter (Derner et al. 2018).
In contrast, warmer winters have the potential to make for more disease pressure on livestock and create more conducive conditions for disease vectors and pests such as ticks. Both the lone star tick and gulf coast tick are examples of potentially impactful disease vectors for cattle and have been expanding their range northward into the Midwest in recent decades (Hanzlicek et al. 2016; Alkishe et al. 2021).
Continued winter warming – as is projected by most models – will likely increase disease management challenges for cattle operations, but also may decrease the risk of cold exposure risk during spring calving. Winter warming is also increasing the length of the growing season in the Midwest although there is uncertainty surrounding the impact this trend has on grazing pastures (Izaurralde et al. 2011).
Precipitation changesThe Midwest has also largely gotten wetter over the past century and a half with increases in total annual precipitation. However, our wetter climate has also experienced more variable precipitation patterns, including more frequent intense or heavy rainfall followed by prolonged dry periods.
Model projections show continued increases in precipitation in the Midwest by mid- and late-century, although with large differences between seasons. The maps in Figure 2 are adopted from Grady et al. (2022) and show projected changes in spring and summer total precipitation across the central Midwest by mid-century and late-century, relative to the 1991-2020 averages. The “x” markings on the maps show places where the two dozen models did not agree on the sign of the projected precipitation change (i.e., wetter or drier than the present climate).
The models largely project continued wetter springs across the region, by up to 4 inches wetter by late-century in parts of Missouri and Illinois. In contrast, the models disagree with each other on how Midwest summer precipitation may change in the future, with roughly half showing increases and half showing decreases in the region. This suggests more confidence in projections of wetter springs in the Midwest in coming decades, compared to more uncertainty in summer precipitation.
With that said, increasing summer evaporation rates due to higher temperatures can increase drought stress on forage and water supply irrespective of overall changes in summer rainfall. Projected increases in rapid wet-dry transitions across the Midwest will also increase the region’s vulnerability to growing season flash drought.
Livestock can be significantly impacted by precipitation changes. Persistent wet conditions in the spring and early summer promote growth of disease and fungi in forages. Wetter springs also create mud issues that complicate calving and other spring fieldwork. Meanwhile, prolonged dry spells – such as those in and fall 2022 and 2023 – reduce forage quantity and quality across the region and can force early and costly supplemental feeding. More variable precipitation in summer also makes it more challenging for producers to plan more than a month ahead of time.
The Midwest has not experienced widespread drying trends that have affected other beef production regions, and projections suggest a continued wetter Midwest climate in coming decades. With that said, changes in precipitation variability and seasonality, and increased heavy rainfall can cause negative impacts to livestock, including fostering disease and reducing forage quality. Recent Midwest management challenges related to drought and climate variability have contributed to the United States’ smallest beef herd in 50 years (USDA, 2023)
ConclusionIllinois’ climate has changed over the last 150 years and it has had direct and varied impacts on livestock and beef production. Higher temperatures have increased animal heat exposure. Warmer winters and springs may reduce extreme cold exposure, especially during calving; however, they also foster higher prevalence of disease and pests such as ticks. Increased precipitation and rainfall intensity can affect forage quality, grazing land quality, and disease and pest prevalence.
These changes create additional challenges for beef producers; however, many adaptation strategies have been developed and implemented to limit climate change impacts. For example, increased implementation of cooling technologies such as shade and stir fans can help reduce animal heat stress and offset potentially negative heat impacts on production.
Altering the timing of grazing to respond to longer forage growing seasons and proactive flexible stocking are additional adaptive management strategies that can increase production resilience to increasingly variable weather conditions in the Midwest. Livestock producers are also transitioning to native and more resilient grasses for improved forage production during drought.
Many of these strategies have production and environmental co-benefits, such as the shading, carbon storage, soil health improvements, and ecosystem services provided by agroforestry (e.g., alley cropping, silvopasture, etc.). It is important to understand that there are no livestock climate adaptation strategies that are “silver bullets”, and some strategies will inevitably work more effectively than others in specific systems or on specific farms.
Strong and collaborative relationships between scientists, producers, and state and federal government are crucial to ensuring producers have the information and resources to effectively adapt to our changing Midwest climate. Additionally, many of the climate changes discussed here are projected to continue irrespective of present and near-future greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the magnitude of these changes and the realized impacts on livestock are largely dependent on present and future greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, substantial reductions in carbon dioxide and methane emissions from all sectors now and in the next several years could help limit climate change and the risks it poses to beef production, creating an overall more resilient and sustainable production system.
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Bagath, M., G. Krishnan, C. Devaraj, V.P. Rashamol, P. Pragna, A.M. Lees, and V. Sejian, 2019: The impact of heat stress on the immune system in dairy cattle: A review. Research in Veterinary Science, 126, 94-102.
Derner, J., and coauthors, 2017: Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate. Climatic Change, 146, 19-32.
Grady, K.A., L. Chen, and T.W. Ford, 2022: Projected changes to spring and summer precipitation in the Midwestern United States. Frontiers in Water, 3.
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Wichman, L.G., C.A. Redifer, A.R. Rathert-Williams N.B. Duncan, C.A. Payne, and A.M. Meyer, 2022: Effects of spring – versus fall – calving on perinatal nutrient availability and neonatal vigor in beef cattle. Translational Animal Science, 6.
Wuebbles, D., J. Angel, K. Petersen, and A.M. Lemke (eds.), 2021: An assessment of the impacts of climate change in Illinois. The Nature Conservancy, Illinois.
Ford is the Illinois State climatologist, for Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; and Leasor is the Missouri State climatologist and an assistant professor in the School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri.
