Mathew Jouppi Over the next decade, countries around the globe will need 3,787 new aircraft, opportunities worth $135 billion to aerospace companies.
Mathew Jouppi
Over the next decade, 4,408 fighters will be delivered, worth more than $358 billion.
In January 2021, Austria’s defense minister stated the country wanted to replace its Eurofighter Typhoons as rapidly as possible. The country may also consider an interim replacement (such as when it leased F-5s from Switzerland) to further expedite the sale. Contenders for the purchase of up to 18 aircraft include the Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) FA-50, Saab JAS 39C/D and secondhand Lockheed Martin F-16s.
Ottawa had been expected to select a manufacturer for 88 new fighter aircraft this year, and source selection is likely between now and March 2022. The Royal Canadian Air Force accepted bids from Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Saab for the Future Fighter Capability Project, worth $11 billion, but the Canadian government recently disqualified Boeing from the contest.
The country’s air force and navy fighter competitions remain the world’s largest opportunities for industry. But India has not yet released a request for proposals for the $17 billion, 110-aircraft air force tender.
And the future of the nation’s 57 future naval fighters remains in flux, as senior leaders are prioritizing acquisition of new submarines rather than a third aircraft carrier. Meanwhile, India is developing a twin-engine deck-based fighter to replace Mikoyan MiG-29Ks by the 2030s.
Tehran has long sought to import a modern, fourth-generation, non-Western fighter. A 2019 Defense Intelligence Agency report states the Russian S-400 SAM and Sukhoi Su-30 are likely to be among the first Iranian arms imports following the lapse of the arms embargo in October 2020. The Chinese J-10 and FC-20E and the Russian Su-30MSE are reportedly also competing.
Lima is looking to replace its existing Dassault Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 fleets with two dozen of a single fighter type. The COVID-19 pandemic and financial difficulties have led the air force to express interest in secondhand Qatari, Emirati and French Mirage 2000s, but the South American nation may also consider the KAI FA-50, Lockheed Martin F-16s or the MiG-35.
Competitions worth $16.5 billion are up for grabs, with the preponderance of opportunities—more than $5 billion—in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Egyptian Air Force wants to purchase 120 aircraft to replace its Hongdu K-8 Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) fleet, acquired during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Warming geopolitical ties with Italy could grant Leonardo’s M-345 or M-346 an edge against Aero Vodochody’s L-39NG, KAI’s T-50 and Sierra Nevada Corp.’s A-29.
Tokyo asked companies for information as part of its effort to replace 200 Kawasaki T-4 AJTs. Relative to its peers in Europe and North America, Japan has not leveraged advancements in embedded training and appears to be in an early stage of defining its future training pipeline.
The UK announced plans in 2021 to replace the Royal Air Force’s fleet of about 90 Grob G-115E introductory trainers with a fully electric-powered training aircraft starting in 2027.
The Spanish Air Force requires a new AJT to replace its F-5 fleet starting in 2028. In October, Maj. Gen. Antonio Javier Guerrero Mochon, head of the plans division of the general staff, noted the service was evaluating options including the Airbus Future Jet Trainer, a program Airbus has contended would help protect Spanish industry as it pivots from the Eurofighter to the Future Combat Air System. The aircraft also would provide Airbus with a modern alternative to the T-7A.
Taipei is expected to launch an Aerospace Industrial Development Corp. (AIDC) F-CK-1 replacement effort near the end of the decade after T-5 AJT production ends. AIDC will likely rely on U.S. companies for avionics and powerplant expertise. Quick alert responsiveness, low cost, high maintainability and technology transfer are expected to feature prominently in the program.
The U.S. Air Force’s competition for a follow-on aerial refueling tanker is likely to dominate this sector in the coming years.
In the latest Airbus versus Boeing showdown, the U.S. Air Force is launching a competition for up to 160 “bridge tankers” as a follow-on to the Boeing KC-46A. The new aircraft would enter service around 2029. In this chapter, Boeing’s U.S.-based rival Lockheed Martin joins forces with Airbus to offer the LMXT with 59,000 lb. of additional fuel relative to the KC-46 as well as additional internal space for computing and networking. It is all up to the Air Force now—and how it will weigh these added capabilities against the cost of new infrastructure and manning requirements for next version of the Boeing tanker, the KC-46B.
The Indian Air Force urgently needs to replace the Antonov An-32 with 100 aircraft, either the Airbus C295 or Ilyushin IL-214V. But since the C295 is in a parallel Indian competition for 56 airlifters, it would make sense for the service to double down on the Airbus twin turboprop.
The country’s 2014 invasion of the Crimean Peninsula eliminated the possibility of a previously planned remanufacturing program for the military’s An-124 airlifters by the Ukrainian company Antonov. Now Russia is attempting to buy 20 new-build long--range heavy trans-port aircraft. Russia might retrofit its An-124s with new PD-35 engines or pursue a new design by Tupolev or Ilyushin.
During the next 10 years, the market for maritime patrol aircraft is expected to grow by 10%.
In August, the U.S. Navy revealed Egypt was in talks to acquire the Northrop Grumman E-2D Advanced Hawkeye to replace its current Hawkeye 2000 fleet. The Egyptian Air Force, however, has favored non-U.S. platforms in recent years. Ensuring compatibility among these disparate platforms will be a significant challenge.
The Russian Navy has a requirement for a long-range anti-submarine warfare (ASW) platform under the “PLAK” program. Tupolev apparently is offering a highly modified Tu-214 airliner with ASW-mission equipment. Beriev and Ilyushin are also likely competitors.
The U.S. Army has an ongoing requirement for a new Multi-Domain Sensing System-1000 (MDSS-1000) platform to provide targets for its long-range precision fires—effectively replacing the Air Force’s Northrop Grumman E-8 Joint Stars. The MDSS-1000 will carry the High-Accuracy Detection and Exploitation System (HADES) payload, though survivability of the platform remains a concern. Modified versions of the Boeing P-8A, BAE-L3Harris EC-37B, Northrop Grumman RQ-4 and Bombardier E-11 may compete.
The U.S. Air Force seeks to replace its existing Boeing E-4B nuclear command-and-control aircraft within the next decade under the Survivable Airborne Operations Center program. Development may begin in fiscal 2023, though the upcoming Nuclear Posture Review could complicate the acquisition, which is expected to draw interest from Boeing, L3Harris Technologies, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.
Fleets of attack helicopters are poised to soar by 30% through 2031, making it the fastest-growing type of military aircraft.
The Australian Army is seeking a new armed reconnaissance and light transport helicopter for special operations forces. The type is expected to enter service in 2023. In July 2020, the competition had narrowed to three bids: The Airbus H145M and two Australian companies, Hawker Pacific Aerospace and Babcock Australia, both of which offered the Bell 429 in partnership with Bell. But by October of that year, local media reported the Army was also considering Sikorsky Black Hawks.
In August 2017, India’s defense ministry sought information from industry about 123 naval multirole helicopters with anti-submarine warfare capabilities and 111 armed naval light utility helicopters. India is looking for foreign primes to establish local production with Indian companies. In July 2020, Indian media reported Tata Aerospace, Mahindra Defense Systems, Bharat Forge and Adani Defense had sought to bar Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. from the competition, citing its advantage in government-funded infrastructure. Contenders include the Airbus H225M, Kamov Ka-226T, NHIndustries NH90 and Sikorsky MH-60R.
The Romanian Air Force reportedly selected Bell’s UH-1Y and AH-1Z in 2018, but after lobbying by Airbus and Romanian Aeronautic Industry to support local industry production of the H215M, the tender for 45 aircraft appears to be undergoing a reevaluation.
The Republic of Korea Army has a requirement for 36 additional attack helicopters, having already taken delivery of 36 Boeing AH-64Es. The South Korean defense acquisition authorities have approved 3.17 trillion won ($2.81 billion) for a competition likely to include the Bell AH-1Z in addition to the Apache and other rotorcraft. Deliveries are expected to conclude by 2028.
Aerospace Industrial Development Corp. F-CK-1. Credit: O8447/Wikimedia
Boeing KC-46. Credit: Boeing
Northrop Grumman E-3D. Credit: Northrop Grumman
Boeing AH-64. Credit: Boeing
