Brian Everstine U.S. Defense Department strikes a balance between raising tensions with Beijing and its case for urgent modernization.
Brian Everstine
The Pentagon’s upcoming National Defense Strategy and its 2023 budget plan will be the first true outline of the Biden administration’s long-term military priorities, and senior leaders seem to be sharing mixed messages on the threat the U.S. faces to try to meet two separate needs.
First, the threat from China is so acute, after years of Beijing’s targeted military modernization and U.S. congressional inaction, that time has essentially run out to make big choices about modernizing. But at the same time, the U.S. remains ahead of the challenge, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is looking to lower anxiety, especially amid tensions surrounding China’s recent activity toward Taiwan.
“Yes, we’re facing a formidable challenge,” the Pentagon chief told an audience on Dec. 4 at the Reagan National Defense Forum, the annual meeting of establishment defense minds and industry leaders in the hills of Southern California. “But America isn’t a country that fears competition. And we’re going to meet this one with confidence and resolve—not panic and pessimism.”
Austin gave a brief preview of the National Defense Strategy (NDS), the department’s first since the 2018 version under then-President Donald Trump, led by then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, that newly popularized the concept of “great power competition.” Austin’s new key phrase is “integrated deterrence,” the notion of looking beyond just military power to working with the rest of the U.S. government and allies to make the “folly and costs of aggression very clear,” he said.
“We’re clear-eyed about the challenge that China presents,” Austin said. “But China is not 10 ft. tall. This is America. You know, we have the greatest industry, the greatest innovators in the world. And we’re going to do what’s necessary to create the capabilities that help us maintain the competitive edge going forward.”
Instead of previewing military priorities that might appear in the NDS, Austin said the strategy will focus on improved relationships with allies and a push for innovation through improved acquisition processes with industry, especially small businesses.
Further down the chain of command, the alarm bells of China’s military capabilities grow louder and are targeted directly at Congress, with frustration that repeated attempts to free up resources for modernization are being blocked.
The loudest voice on this issue has been Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, who has repeatedly said he returned to the Pentagon specifically worried about China’s modernization. “They have very thoughtfully come after our key assets. . . . We need to be just as thoughtful about what we buy,” he said at the forum.
China’s modernization in hypersonics, stealth aircraft and long-range air-to-air missiles are directly focused on U.S. ability to project power, and their efforts target high-value assets that are in low numbers.
“We have got to respond to that, or we can’t credibly project power in the Western Pacific,” Kendall said. “So time is our enemy, and so is the reluctance to move resources into the places where they are needed to do things that are needed to confront that threat.”
Kendall focused on familiar targets for Air Force planners: the A-10 attack jet, General Atomics MQ-9 Reapers, some Lockheed Martin C-130 airlifters and some of the older refueling tankers. These aircraft have proven particularly useful in counterterrorism operations, but that time is passing. “If it doesn’t threaten China, why are we doing it?” he asked.
These retirements are regularly blocked by lawmakers—the compromise fiscal 2022 National Defense Authorization Act unveiled Dec. 7 mostly continues the trend, blocking A-10 retirements for one year and raising the number of C-130s that must be in the Air Force fleet while allowing some other aging aircraft to be retired.
Before his confirmation in August, Kendall raised the retirement-blocking issue with lawmakers who agree with him about the threat from China. “But then in the next sentence, or maybe in the same sentence, they would say: ‘Don’t touch my fill-in-the-blank aircraft in my state,’” Kendall said. “We’ve got to get by that; we’ve got to get a common understanding of the seriousness of this threat and a sense of urgency about addressing it, and I don’t think we have enough of that in Congress right now.”
Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger said at the forum that in recent years conventional deterrence has not worked in the region. While there has not been a “hot war,” China has continued its buildup in the South China Sea. “If we continue to do the same thing for the next three years, I’m not so sure it’s even going to be status quo,” he said.
The head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (IndoPACOM), Adm. John Aquilino, said at the forum that China’s buildup in the region is the largest the world has seen since World War II and is prompting new steps such as the “AUKUS” agreement for nuclear submarine technology among Australia, the UK and the U.S. The U.S. and his command are looking at further collaboration with other countries in the region. AUKUS is one approach, and there need to be other, additive security relationships.
IndoPACOM conducts about 120 exercises every year and wants them to expand. For example, the last Rim of the Pacific exercise included 27 nations, and the next will be larger. The Malabar exercise with the Quad nations of Australia, Japan, India and the U.S. will also grow.
For the upcoming NDS and five-year budget plan, IndoPACOM wants a greater focus on its top three priorities: missile defenses for Guam, a secure cybernetwork to coordinate with allies and improved training ranges, Aquilino said.
IndoPACOM’s discussion of its priorities comes as China is daily conducting air and naval exercises near Taiwan, which Aquilino and Austin both said appear to be “rehearsals” for operations. While higher-ranking political leaders will decide how to respond, IndoPACOM is outlining what it would need if called upon.
“You’ve seen a lot of discussion on China being the peer competitor, so we are providing inputs on the requirements we would need to be able to execute the mission if tasked, and I’m really optimistic that when we see this ’23 budget there will be the right resourcing as it applies to the way the strategy is being laid out,” Aquilino said.
U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville said at the forum that the changing reality in the Indo-Pacific comes with increased demand for specific capabilities, some of which are new and will require more investment. These include long-range precision fires “that can hold ships at risk or sink ships,” integrated air and missile defense against both missiles and unmanned aircraft systems, and specialized units such as Security Force Assistance Brigades to help allies and the new Multi-Domain Task Force designed to defeat anti-access, area-denial capabilities in the Pacific.
Army leaders have grown increasingly vocal about these capabilities, concerned that a further shift to focusing on a China conflict in the Pacific would take resources away from the land force. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said at the forum that her service would be a “linchpin” in the region, enabling the Navy and Air Force by securing air bases, setting up distribution networks and command and control.
Kendall said the upcoming strategy and budget will address the national security needs, but flexibility is essential so that changes can be made. The long-term budget planning and NDS discussions, while largely being conducted by different groups, are looking at how to align NDS resources and balance its anticipated risk.
“I don’t think anybody [would say] the world is going to be less risky in five years or 10 years or 15 years, so we have to deal with that, and part of our planning process is to try to understand how to get that balance right,” Kendall said. “So in the Pentagon, we are to some degree working the strategy in parallel with the budget, but they’re not disconnected from each other.”