Jens Flottau Ahead of the 2021 Dubai Airshow, Gulf carriers are still powerful industry forces but follow different paths and press to adjust their fleet plans.
Jens Flottau
For Emirates, the Dubai Airshow has always been the stage to present its big ambitions. It has routinely announced its aircraft orders there, including a staggering commitment for 150 Boeing 777Xs and 50 more Airbus A380s at the 2013 show. But eight years and one pandemic later, orders of the same scale are highly unlikely as Emirates and its peers adjust to the new realities.
Coming out of the novel coronavirus pandemic, the airline landscape in the Gulf has changed. In the early phase of the pandemic, Emirates was essentially grounded for several months and has since slowly built back an operation that is still far below 2019 levels. Its primary rival in the region, Qatar Airways, has used the crisis as an opportunity to build its share of the remaining air transport market—-Qatar Airways ranked ahead of Emirates in seat capacity during some periods in 2020 and 2021. Only recently has Emirates built back to the leading position, reclaiming its place as the largest international airline globally, followed by Ryanair and Qatar, according to CAPA – Centre for Aviation data for the last week of October. Etihad Airways, once equally ambitious, scaled back long ago and is now less than a quarter of Emirates’ current size.
As Dubai wants to position this year’s show, taking place Nov. 14-18, as the first big event of its kind after the pandemic, Emirates is also keen to demonstrate that its recovery from the dark days of 2020 is well underway. “Demand for air travel will restore itself sooner rather than later,” Emirates Airline President Tim Clark asserts. Since travel restrictions have eased in some key markets, “bookings have gone exponential,” he notes. “There is a lot of pent-up demand, and it is now coming back.”
The airline’s loss for fiscal 2021-22, ending March 31, will be smaller than it was in fiscal 2020-21, according to Clark. Emirates Group recorded a $6 billion loss in the 2020-21 financial year and received $3.1 billion in equity from the government of Dubai to cope with the fallout of the pandemic. Clark believes the company will return to profitability in the second half of the 2022-23 financial year. The International Air Transport Association forecasts that the industry as a whole will return to profit in 2023.
“We have been prudently restoring our operations in line with the borders reopening and [easing] of travel protocols, and with the positive signs in the economic recovery and continuous growth of demand, we are hopeful to be back to where we were pre-pandemic, from mid-2022,” Emirates Group Chairman and CEO Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum says. The airline is hiring 2,500 additional staff on top of 3,500 more announced in September over the next six months to cope with the added workload. Among the 2,500 are 700 pilots—and management hopes it can hire back many more pilots who have been laid off since early 2020.
Emirates is flying all of its 145 Boeing 777-300ERs again and is bringing back more A380s. By the end of November, the airline will fly the A380 to 27 destinations, up from 18 currently. By year-end, the company aims to have 50 A380s back in service. The last two A380s on order are scheduled to be delivered in December. In terms of overall capacity, the company aims to reach 70% of pre-crisis levels by the end of the year and will “restore the network by the middle of next year,” Clark says.
So much for the near term. Longer-term, Emirates is still looking to change in its fleet structure significantly. In 2019, it opted not to take more A380s, ordering 50 A350-900s instead. The airline also reduced the initial commitment for 150 777Xs to 115 units while taking 30 787-9s as well. It is moving from a fleet of two high- or very-high-capacity types to four and a smaller average aircraft size.
There has been a lot of speculation about Emirates possibly reducing its 777X order further. Because of the program’s many delays, Emirates is likely contractually entitled to walk away from earlier commitments anyway, and Clark has been vocal in his criticism of Boeing’s lack of transparency about the 777X timeline.
“We have to have a grown-up discussion about timeline,” Clark says. “We have to deal with it fairly quickly, as we need to know when these aircraft are coming in.” He was unsure as to whether the talks could be concluded before the Dubai Airshow.
The much-delayed 777X is now tentatively scheduled to be delivered at the end of 2023. The Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery database estimates the first 777-9 will be delivered to Emirates in the second quarter of 2024 and the first of 16 777-8s in the first quarter of 2015. But Clark says he does not even know “whether the -8 is going to be built,” adding: “And I’m not sure what is going on with the 787 either-—they have not been delivering them for months.” Emirates is due to receive the first 787 in the second quarter of 2024, according to Fleet Discovery data.
Emirates has returned all of its Boeing 777-300ERs to service and wants clarity on upcoming 777X deliveries. Credit: Airbus
