Steve Trimble A breakthrough agreement fast-tracked approvals for F-35As and MQ-9Bs to the UAE, but finalizing those deals could still take years.
Steve Trimble
Two UAE Air Force Mirage 2000-9s fly in formation with two U.S. F-35As. The first F-35As in UAE colors could still be several years away. Credit: Staff Sgt. Chris Drzazgowski/U.S. Air Force
A look at the major discussions during each biennial Dubai Airshow offers a convenient proxy for understanding the evolving diplomatic relationship between the United Arab Emirates and U.S. governments over the last four years.
In 2017, U.S. diplomats and defense officials, empowered by the newly sworn-in Trump administration, publicly promoted the idea of selling Lockheed Martin F-35s and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc. MQ-9Bs to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Air Force. Two years later, as Democrats regained control of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a backlash against the UAE’s military involvement in Yemen and Libya put a firm lid on those discussions by administration officials attending the Dubai Airshow.
And what a difference an additional two years can make in diplomatic relations.
Although the current Biden administration is set to adopt a new Conventional Arms Transfer Policy that elevates human rights in the approval process for future arms sales, a diplomatic breakthrough secured last year changed the dynamic of arms sales discussions between Washington and Abu Dhabi, albeit tentatively.
The UAE’s decision in October 2020 to sign the Abraham Accords and normalize diplomatic relations with Israel led to a rushed approval process for a $23 billion arms package,including up to 50 F-35As and 18 MQ-9Bs.
The State Department signed letters of offers and acceptance for the package a week before former President Donald Trump left office. A three-month review that followed by the Biden administration resulted in reapproval of the full package over the objections of key Democratic lawmakers and an ongoing lawsuit in U.S. District Court by the New York Center for Foreign Policy Affairs (Nycfpa), a nonprofit research and analysis institution.
The $23 billion package now stands in a nuanced position as the 2021 edition of the Dubai Airshow looms in mid-November. The State Department has approved both sales to move forward, but negotiations over unspecified details of the transaction may continue with the UAE for months, if not years.
“The administration continues consulting with Emirati officials to ensure we have unmistakably clear mutual understandings with respect to Emirati obligations and actions before, during and after delivery, as we move forward with these proposed defense sales to the UAE,” a State Department spokesman tells Aviation Week.
Although the administration is “moving forward” with the UAE deals, the State Department feels in no rush to work out the final terms.
“Projected delivery dates on these sales, if implemented, would be several years in the future,” the spokesman says. “Thus, we anticipate a robust and sustained dialog with the UAE to ensure that any defense transfers meet our mutual strategic objectives to build a stronger, interoperable and more capable security partnership, while protecting U.S. technology.”
A planned F-35A order represents a long-awaited upgrade from the UAE’s F-16 Block 60s, which the U.S. approved for export in 2000 after a lengthy review process. Credit: Tech. Sgt. Michael R. Holzworth
Lockheed referred questions about the status of the F-35A deal to the U.S. and UAE governments. “That said, we stand ready to provide the world’s most advanced and capable fifth-generational fighter aircraft,” a Lockheed spokeswoman says.
The extended negotiations over an approved sale are not necessarily an ominous sign, but it does create risks. Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at the consultancy Teal Group, cites two historical examples: the lengthy negotiations that preceded UAE orders for Lockheed F-16 Block 60 fighters and Leonardo M-346 trainers.
“While they did ultimately sign for the F-16 [Block] 60, the road there was long, and involved price concessions and significant systems modifications,” Aboulafia recalls. “Sometimes things collapse. Their long road to buying a combat trainer, for example, involved near-buys with DASA’s Mako, the M-346 and a few others, too. [But there is] still no combat trainer.”
The deal for F-35s and MQ-9Bs still faces a legal threat. The Nycfpa filed a lawsuit on Dec.30, 2020 in U.S. District Court, complaining that the rushed process to approve the package after the signing of the Abraham Accords failed to comply with the requirements of the Arms Export Control Act. The 1976 law bans all arms sales unless a government review finds the transactions “strengthen the security of the United States and promote world peace.”
The litigation marks a rare attempt to establish a new legal precedent. Arms export proposals in the U.S. now must be scrutinized by the executive and legislative branches. If the Nycfpa case is not thrown out by District Court, such deals also could face a judicial review. So far, District Court Judge Paul Freeman has not ruled on the State Department’s motion to dismiss the Nycfpa lawsuit.
The motion to dismiss filed by the Justice Department acknowledges this threat and argues that the judicial branch lacks jurisdiction over diplomatic policy.
“The Executive Branch has determined that selling certain defense articles and services to the UAE is appropriate, and Congress has not blocked those sales,” the motion states. The Nycfpa “would have the Court second-guess that determination, at a potentially considerable cost to the United States’ foreign relations,” the motion continues.
The deal already survived an attempt by lawmakers last year to overturn the State Department’s original approval. A Senate vote last November defeated a resolution to prohibit the sale of F-35s and MQ-9s to the UAE. A similar proposal in the House of Representatives was never brought to a vote.
In the meantime, the timeline for F-35A and MQ-9B deliveries to the UAE remains uncertain. The Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s Military Fleet Discovery database now assesses that Lockheed will begin delivering F-35As to the UAE in the second half of the 2020s. That projection matches the database’s assessed F-35A delivery schedule before the signing of the Abraham Accords.
The status of the F-35A deal also clouds the future of the MQ-9B sale. The Trump administration appeared to clear the last remaining policy obstacle to selling large, medium-altitude unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) to the UAE in July 2020. At that time, the State Department announced a policy decision to unilaterally redefine the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The new definition adopted by the U.S. excludes aircraft such as the MQ-9B from the Category 1 group, which effectively banned them for export to any country besides NATO members, Australia, Israel, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.
Despite the policy change, the MQ-9B deal became included in the same export package as the F-35A sale. The continuing negotiations between the U.S. and UAE governments include both aircraft types.
So far, the State Department has made no move to review the previous administration’s decision to reinterpret the MTCR.
“We continue operating under the July 2020 update to our 2018 UAS Export policy,” a State Department spokesman says. “All proposed transfers are subject to the same rigorous case-by-case review in accordance with criteria outlined in the United States’ UAS Export Policy, the Conventional Arms Transfer Policy and the Arms Export Control Act, as well as the specific nonproliferation criteria identified in the MTCR Guidelines.”
