Helen Massy-Beresford, Thierry Dubois, Ben Goldstein, Lori Ranson, Sean Broderick Long-term need for pilots remains strong but getting through the next few years will present challenges.
Helen Massy-Beresford, Thierry Dubois, Ben Goldstein, Lori Ranson, Sean Broderick
The downturn interrupted pilot hiring, but the trend is expected to reverse very quickly. Credit: Nelson Almeida/AFP/Getty Images
The global passenger traffic downturn has not altered long-term demand for pilots much, but changes at airlines to address short-term operational variations have disrupted their pipelines and proficiency protocols, creating new hurdles to clear as the recovery strengthens.
Boeing’s long-term commercial pilot-demand outlook does not forecast a return to pre-pandemic staffing levels either. Its 2019 Commercial Market Outlook saw a need to add 645,000 pilots over 20 years to support commercial operations. The 2020 version cut this to 605,000—a direct result of the pandemic’s depth and duration. In the just-released 2021 version, the two-decade total is back up to 612,000.
The figures stem from Boeing’s long-term global commercial passenger and cargo traffic outlook. Baked into the latest figures is an assumption that passenger traffic, as measured in revenue passenger kilometers, will be back to 2019 levels by 2025 at the latest.
The recovery will vary by market segment, with domestic operations coming back more quickly than international long-haul flying. Variances within certain markets will change how operators deploy capacity as well; a spike in COVID-19 cases in a country could be enough to put its international flying on hold, either through its own government’s actions or restrictions enacted by other jurisdictions.
The variable-heavy scenario presents headaches for airline flight operations departments—both in terms of managing current rosters and expanding them with new hires.
Despite what Airbus characterizes as a continuing unpredictable environment, the airframer expects the commercial aircraft market to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels between 2023 and 2025, led by the single-aisle market.
“The two-year time frame generates some uncertainty around pilot skill retention,” says Yann Lardet, Airbus vice president of flight operations support and training standards.
Airbus customers have different strategies depending on the situation in their respective markets. Some, such as those based in the U.S., are enjoying a strong recovery in domestic demand. Those more exposed to long-haul flight demand do not expect to see recovery until closer to 2025.
The varying approaches are shaping customer pilot-training needs. Airbus has always offered customers flight training, ranging from introductory courses for operators taking their first Airbus models to required recurrent training for line pilots. Usually, projecting training needs for customers is straightforward, but the current situation has required some adaptation. Distance learning and flexible virtual flight training have been extended to ensure the continuation of training programs and support “grounded” pilots, Lardet says.
Airbus’ network of training facilities includes 20 locations and two flying schools. The total number of full-flight simulators stands at approximately 40, including those available under partnership agreements. The network employs 350 instructors, including pilots and simulator instructors.
The network’s depth and breadth means Airbus can meet demand from customers that do not have training facilities, as well as ones with their own simulators that need ad hoc capacity. However, current requests are far from normal, such as customers planning training—especially for type ratings or qualifications to fly specific aircraft—years in advance. “Customer training plans are constantly evolving,” Lardet says. “We have to be agile.”
In Asia, passenger traffic is stagnant and pilot supply is meeting demand—at least for now. In the U.S., the rapid pace of recovery is creating difficulties for carriers to hire, he points out.
Moreover, in the near to medium term, market dynamics in the air transport industry may make pilot training demand more complex.
Some operators have begun to aggressively try to acquire market share—Wizz Air’s failed attempt to take over EasyJet is a case in point. Others consider hiring pilots to reopen routes closed after a carrier has gone bankrupt.
In North America, a number of pilots have left the flight deck. The Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) says more than 2,000 pilots at the 35 carriers it represents took advantage of voluntary job-reduction programs designed to cut pilot rosters as painlessly as possible. They have either retired or taken different jobs.
“You can see the trend on social media such as LinkedIn,” Lardet says. “Many pilots have changed their status to ‘former pilot.’”
The exodus of experienced pilots means a shortage of captains and instructors is likely looming in 2023 or 2024, he says. Fewer co-pilots are ready to move up to fill in the ranks because they have been unable to accumulate the necessary flying experience during the downturn. “The captain-training machine is on pause,” Lardet says.
Many who are still flying and attending required recurrent training sessions are seeing added areas of emphasis. He says threat- and error-management training has been reinforced. The role of the pilot monitoring—the pilot designated to act as a second set of eyes and handle support duties, such as verbally reading checklists—is constantly highlighted. “The principle is, ‘If you see I forget something, you have to tell me right away,’” Lardet says.
As operators work to keep their pilots trained, they also face the unenviable task of matching hiring needs with an unpredictable demand curve. Getting pilots hired and trained is a monthslong process, subject to many variables, such as availability of full-flight simulator sessions. Before the downturn, pilot-pathway programs were growing in popularity, linking flight schools or smaller carriers with large airlines and offering pilots the opportunity to progress.
The arrangements are mutually beneficial—aspiring pilots see a path to a job they want with a large airline, and carriers gain some visibility into where they might find future pilots and how they will be trained. Some pathway programs have been discontinued or paused as airlines scale back recruitment efforts.
“We had paused recruiting for a number of years and then started up again from 2017, but we have stopped again now,” says Jean-Frederic Vacher, vice president of crew training and a Boeing 787 captain for Air France, which started 2020 with about 4,000 pilots but now has around 3,600. “We have a waiting list of around 150 pilots (already qualified elsewhere) due to join either Air France or Transavia.
“The selection process for our [ab initio] cadet program is not restarting at the moment,” he adds. “When there is a need to train new cadet pilots, we will take those who had already started the training program before the crisis and whose training was interrupted.”
Wizz Air is hiring pilots and has restored pay to pre-downturn levels. Credit: Joris Verwijst/BSR Agency/Getty Images
The SNPL France ALPA pilot union sees two main trends for pilot supply and demand in Europe. First, more pilots are unemployed as the result of job-reduction efforts, says SNPL Vice President Vincent Gilles. Some were laid off, while others took offers to leave early. The 400 Air France pilots who left the company voluntarily signed agreements last year.
Second, working conditions are degrading, and salaries are decreasing. “We are concerned [that] unacceptable practices tend to spread,” Gilles says.
Some carriers have terminated contracts with pilots and are hiring replacements under less favorable terms. The French government, among others, supports the idea of the European Commission harmonizing labor rights for crew members, according to Gilles. “Some carriers are using legal loopholes and [taking advantage of] differences between countries,” he says. “Inspections at a European level are difficult, notably due to a lack of resources.”
Many countries have provided emergency support for workers, such as direct payments to companies that pledge to avoid involuntary cuts, or other methods to ensure pay reductions are offset. Some companies negotiated pay reductions to help save jobs and conserve cash. Once the formal government programs end, airlines will be free to do as they please—and that creates more uncertainty among labor groups.
“Many furlough schemes are ending by the end of this year,” says Tanja Harter, technical board director at the European Cockpit Association. “The interesting part will be to see by March [or] April next year: Will the program pick up again, and what will happen if the airlines don’t get that kind of money anymore? What will happen once that umbrella [under which airlines can’t fire people] ends?”
In some cases, carriers are moving quickly to help ensure staff stability. Fast-growing Wizz Air may have missed out on EasyJet, but it is not slowing down. The carrier is larger than it was in March 2020, having added more than 300 of its 1,000 routes in the last 18 months. It restored pilot pay to pre-pandemic levels on Oct. 1 and plans to hire 200 pilots by year-end.
Airlines such as Wizz Air with business models or geographic footprints that are less hampered by pandemic-induced travel restrictions, face fewer near-term questions than less fortunate competitors. North American carriers are benefiting from recovering domestic markets, helping offset international travel headwinds.
Data compiled by Future and Active Pilot Advisors (FAPA) shows pilot hiring is in full swing among U.S. major airlines—and not just at all-cargo carriers that never slowed down. Six of the nine passenger airlines it tracks added new-hire pilots in August, and two others plan to by year-end.
Annual major-carrier pilot hiring totals among airlines FAPA tracks ranged from 4,500 to 5,000 just before the downturn but fell to 2,400 last year as passenger carriers stopped all activity after the first quarter. The aggregate hiring total should surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2022, with several carriers planning to add 1,500 or more new pilots each, FAPA says.
Demand for new pilots at the largest U.S. carriers places pressure on the sources of new pilots. Many regional airlines are rolling out new-hire incentives and bonuses for current pilots.
“We remain active in the hiring of pilots and have hired 250 pilots since April with training in full capacity,” says Mesa Air Group Chief Operating Officer Brad Rich. “Our applicant pools remain strong, and we believe in our ability to hire across the airline.”
