By Karen Walker
The world’s airlines were courageous when, through IATA, they committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. That commitment was made in October 2021 when pandemic-related lockdowns and travel restrictions were still crippling demand for flights and most airlines were still posting large financial losses. The 2050 net-zero goal will be neither easy to accomplish nor cheap. On the contrary, it will require huge investment, which is why the IATA commitment was brave. To be clear, however, airlines really have no choice. The world—planet Earth—is demanding action on significant carbon emissions reductions more loudly every day as the effects of not doing so become terrifyingly apparent and the time available to reverse course runs perilously short. Airlines may feel they are unfairly targeted in the carbon blame game. They can point to other, dirtier industries, to the ICAO CORSIA agreement—the first-ever global carbon-offsetting scheme—and to the economic power that air connectivity generates. The arguments for the good that the global air transport industry brings and for its relatively clean operations are valid, but less and less relevant as the carbon pollution stakes get higher. So yes, the 2050 commitment is courageous, but it’s also not optional. COVID-19 has been devastating on the industry, yet ultimately it will only slow the growth in demand for air travel temporarily. If the air transport industry does not make itself carbon net-zero, it will not be permitted to exist. It is frustrating, therefore, to still have the naysayers and skeptics wanting to debate whether the industry can achieve net-zero instead of supporting the actions that will get the industry to its declared destination, or as close to it as possible. There is no single more critical action than to grow the world’s supply of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Offsetting, new engine and aircraft designs, and other technologies will be important, but SAF is the single biggest—and most achievable—enabler of the 2050 goal. It’s proven, it works, and it’s already available. The problem, of course, is there’s nowhere near enough of it. SAF production needs to increase from the roughly 100 million liters (26.4 million gal.) produced in 2021 to 449 billion liters (120 billion gal.) by 2050. It’s a man-on-the-moon type of leap, but—just like the Apollo 11 mission—not unachievable, given we already know SAF works. The focus, therefore, must be on actions to rapidly grow the SAF supply, which means massively ramping up the feedstocks from which SAF is produced. There are many good action plans in place. The Biden administration’s SAF Grand Challenge in the US and the Toulouse Declaration, signed this year in Europe, are excellent examples. They bring together industry stakeholders, fuel suppliers, policymakers and the private sector to find the solutions to growing SAF supplies. Every day, airlines are forming partnerships with fuel producers and corporate travel buyers to increase supply and help fund its development. Funding is a daunting aspect of the SAF endeavor, but it’s not out of reach. The right government policies and incentives will attract investors. The money is there—trillions in capital if needed—but the onus is on governments that want to keep their air connectivity to make clear that SAF production is a good investment. And, at least in the near term, the discussion needs to shift away from finding “perfect” SAF and toward establishing a strong and consistent supply of “great” or even “good” SAF. Time is short—desperately so. Experts across the field agree that the biggest challenge is getting to where SAF supplies are sufficient to meet 10% of commercial aviation’s jet fuel needs. Beyond that, momentum will increase, the SAF industry will be firmly established and funded, and the rest will follow. Getting to that 10% is another action call. It almost certainly requires broadening the feedstock sources and it will require working with the traditional oil supply companies. Ultimately, given what’s at stake, it’s the end goal that is important. That’s the continuation of a growing global air transport industry that provides safe, efficient, affordable and, most of all, environmentally sustainable passage to humans and for vital cargo—think vaccines, food and medical equipment. And that means it’s high time for less debate and for getting on with the work.
