Airbus and Boeing are facing another year of focusing on operational and quality issues, market uncertainties and product development challenges.
Sean Broderick, Jens Flottau, Guy Norris
Almost two years after the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pandemic, the biggest shock aircraft manufacturing has gone through in recent history, Airbus and Boeing are still in varying degrees of crisis mode. Building production rates back up has proven to be more complicated than both had hoped for a variety of reasons. Making decisions even on near-term product development appears to be on the back-burner for the time being, except at Embraer. 2022 looks set to be another year full of operational challenges that will take most attention of managements.
As 2020 drew to a close, Boeing was eagerly anticipating the coming year as one that would see its two most important commercial programs, the 737 and 787, get back on track. The 737’s latest variant, the MAX family, was grounded in the wake of two fatal accidents, and deliveries had stopped in March 2019. Quality problems halted 787 deliveries in the fall of 2020.
A year later, Boeing is largely in the same spot. The 737 MAX is flying again, but the company’s goal of wiping out a stored backlog of about 460 aircraft by 2023 will not happen. A production-line change forced Boeing to pause deliveries in spring 2021 for a few weeks, and orderbook shuffling is leading already-built aircraft to change hands, forcing the manufacture to re-configure undelivered aircraft. The cascading issues meant Boeing was handing over as few as six airplanes per month from its stored inventory in late 2021—far below the target of 19-20 needed to clear the backlog by 2023.
New production is faring better. Boeing’s 737 program production rate was up to 19/month in October and on track to hit 31/month in early 2022, according to Boeing executives. The 31 figure was picked to match demand with supply-chain capabilities, Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said in October. How much higher Boeing goes, and when rates increase, will be dictated more by suppliers’ capacity than market demand.
“As we go through the second half of the year and forward, I think that will be an assessment of the supply chain, not an assessment of demand, that gets us to whatever number we get to,” Calhoun said. "I think we're going to be in a supply-constrained world, probably from second half [of 2022] through all of 2023 with respect to narrowbodies.”
Boeing’s planned 737 MAX rate ramp will come alongside additions to the family. The 737-7 is
Boeing sent a 777-9 prototype to the November Dubai Airshow, its first international appearance. Credit: Mark Wagner/Aviation Images
on track for certification and first deliveries in 2022, while the 737-10 is slated to follow in 2023.
The -10 incorporates several changes ordered by regulators as part of modifications mandated following two fatal accidents, in 2018 and 2019, that killed 346 people and grounded the fleet. The most significant is an enhanced angle-of-attack (AOA) system, championed by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, that adds redundancy to the original, two-AOA system. Faulty AOA data factored prominently in both accidents, prompting Boeing to redesign the MAX flight control software. EASA pushed to have the new system developed and phased in as part of Boeing’s return-to-service plan.
With the 737 MAX program steadily gaining altitude, the 787 has assumed the spotlight as Boeing’s most troubled commercial program. Barring a major change as the year comes to a close, Boeing will end 2021 with just 14 787 deliveries—a figure that reflected an average month's worth of customer handovers before the pandemic and production problems created hurricane-force headwinds. While the airplane remains popular among customers—the 81% of 787s in regular service in October 2020 was the highest percentage among all widebodies and trailed only the A320neo and A220, Aviation Week Fleet Discovery data showed—Boeing is struggling to address a spate of quality issues. They range from unfilled gaps between structural parts to potentially contaminated composite material. The issues will likely require attention on in-service aircraft, but that work may end up being phased into schedule maintenance checks.
The larger headaches come before delivery. Boeing is working to develop effective techniques to help identify what issues exist on each airframe, instead of ripping each one apart to check for every known defect. As of late November, Boeing had not convinced the FAA that its methods were sufficient, and 787 production had slowed to less than 2/month, down from an already reduced 5/month rate established in early 2021. The saga has left Boeing with more than 100 787s ready to deliver, and little certainty when the backlog will begin to decline.
“The exact timing of deliveries and future production rates will depend upon inspections and rework, ongoing customer and supplier conversations, production stability and our activities with the FAA,” Calhoun said.
The coming year will see Boeing continue to transition its 777 program from the current-generation models to the 777X. starting with the 777-9. The company is shifting production of the 777X from the low-rate initial production (LRIP) line at Everett, Washington, to the main line, which has been making the first few non-LRIP 777-9s or 777F freighters since the middle of 2021. Demand for large twin-engine freighters prompted Boeing to add extra positions. The uptick means the combined output of 777F/777X line has stabilized at around two per month—most of them freighters.
Meanwhile, the 767 line continues at 3 aircraft/month—all freighters or military tankers. As of Oct. 31, Boeing had 47 767-300Fs in its backlog—about twice the number of 777-8s believed to be on order. Boeing's official order book does not break out variants within aircraft families.
Boeing remains confident the extended 777-9 certification campaign will likely be completed just under two years from now – putting it on track for first deliveries in the last quarter of 2023. Production of additional 777-9s will therefore begin to increase in late 2022 as Boeing works to build up its delivery inventory and perform rework on the initial batch of 777-9 airframes already produced.
The future of the shorter model 777-8, a development of which was pushed back in 2019, now looks to be increasingly tied to that of the 777XF - the freighter version. Boeing is on the cusp of officially launching the cargo model and, according to industry sources, aims to reduce production cost and complexity by extending the size of the 777-8 and configuring the 777XF around the same fuselage length.
The 777-8 is currently defined with a shortened 229 ft. fuselage compared to the 242 ft-long 777-9, and a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) up to 788,000 lb. However, it is likely the 777XF will be offered with a MTOW target of around 805,000 lb., compared to 766,800 lb. for the current 777-200LR based 777F model.
The 777XF is Boeing’s heir apparent to the 747-8F, production of which will end in late 2022 – bringing down the curtain on a 53-year run and marking the end of the longest continuous jet transport assembly line. Coming close in second place is the long-running 767 line which continues at 3 aircraft/month—all freighters or military tankers.
Getting seriously into the freighter business was a key strategic decision Airbus has taken earlier in 2021. At the November Dubai Airshow the manufacturer received its first orders for the A350F from Air Lease Corporation (ALC) and CMA CGM Air Cargo. Along with the A321XLR, the A350F is Airbus’ only near-term development program which will gain momentum in 2022 in preparation for entry into service in 2025
Airbus has assembled the first A321XLR development aircraft in Hamburg, Germany. Credit: Airbus
The A350F is based on the A350-1000. The forward fuselage has been shortened by five frames. The large cargo door will be in the rear to make ground handling easier. The aircraft will have a 109-ton maximum payload and a range of 4,700 nm. It will hold 30 pallets or 30 AM-base containers on the main deck and 12 pallets or 40 LD-3 containers on the lower deck.
The decision to launch the freighter was an obvious one to take and long overdue, given that Boeing had enjoyed a monopoly in the space and with the cargo market outperforming the passenger business in terms of growth rates and margins by far. It is also a good way to keep Airbus engineers busy in the absence of many concrete near-term projects.
Even more advanced is the work on the first A321XLR with the first aircraft now in final assembly. The long-range version of the A321neo, now able to fly missions of up to 4,700 nm, is expected to make its first flight next year and then enter a flight-test program ahead of its entry-into-service in 2023.
The A321neo is gaining more momentum as Airbus’ most important model. At the recent Dubai Airshow, Indigo Partners alone ordered 255 additional aircraft and ALC bought an extra 75 of the aircraft. The two orders were symbolic of its importance also because the A321neo now has surpassed the A320neo as the most in-demand Airbus single aisle at over 4,000 firm commitments, the A320neo has 3,800. The A321neo makes up 57% of the undelivered A320neo family backlog, a share that is likely to rise further.
One big question going into 2022 is whether others will follow the lead of ALC and Indigo Partners and secure more production slots early. The two orders do not include any near-term deliveries, both companies still have these arranged through previous purchases. Rather, they are mostly for deliveries from 2025 onwards. Airbus for sure will try and persuade airlines and lessors that now is the time to buy further out, too, particularly since production in 2022 and 2023 is already sold out and airlines that need additional lift in the short-term essentially have to revert to lessor portfolios.
A big unknown in the Airbus production planning is the future of China orders. The backlog of undelivered aircraft from previous deals is fast diminishing and Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury had hoped for an follow-up purchase ensuring enough supply for Chinese airlines even in 2021. That has not happened leaving Airbus in the hope for an agreement in 2022. It is not obvious that China will be back in the market that soon, however. There is plenty of capacity available and regional lockdowns are forcing airlines to put aircraft on the ground frequently. The persisting and more or less complete halt of international flying also means that many widebody aircraft are available for use on domestic routes.
Airbus is factoring in the likely level of orders from China into its slot allocation but as pressure builds from clients in other regions ready to firmly commit to purchases these provisions are bound to be released at some point in the not-too-distant future.
The A321neo boom has consequences for Airbus’ industrial set-up, too. The Tianjin final assembly line will be enabled to build A321neos and Toulouse will also get a dedicated facility in the former A380 hangar.
Airbus’ largest aircraft program was coming to a close in December with Emirates scheduled to take delivery of the last aircraft off the production line on Dec. 16, though that date was not set in stone.
Ramping down is otherwise not one of Airbus’ problems. Quite the opposite is true. Earlier in 2021, Faury had announced plans for the company to raise production that were considered by many as being too ambitious. Airbus still stuck to them, even though it experienced substantial issues with late (cabin) parts in September in October. In both months, the OEM fell short of its targets to raise output from 40 to around 44 by the end of the year. In September, Airbus delivered just 30 and 32 A320neo family aircraft respectively. Faury claims that the OEM is “on top of it” and the bottlenecks will be an issue of the past soon.
Airbus is still committed to raising single-aisle production to 65 aircraft per month by the middle of 2023 and a large part of that needs to be achieved during the course of 2022. Output of the A220, A330neo and A350 are also increasing: the A220 will go from five aircraft to six per month early next year, the A330neo from two to three at the end of the year and the A350 from five to six in early 2023.
Embraer is the only manufacturer of large commercial aircraft looking at launching an all-new conventional aircraft in the near-term. The company is talking to all three major engine manufacturers about a powerplant for a new large turboprop that is to enter service in 2027 or 2028, provided the OEM can stick to its schedule of firmly launching the aircraft before the end of 2022.
The turboprop is to be offered in versions seating around 70 and 90 passengers. Embraer is pitching the smaller aircraft as replacement for 50-seat jets in the U.S. market, putting forward the much better economics of a turboprop and the bigger cabin based on the E-jets fuselage. In a three class lay-out including domestic first class, premium economy and regular coach, the cabin would have space for around 50 passengers.
The turboprop is planned to have rear-mounted engines and a propulsion system that can be adapted to future alternative sources such as sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) or even hydrogen. Moving the engines aft is also supposed to reduce cabin noise and improve passenger appeal. The aircraft is to be used typically on short sectors of around 250 nm, but would be able to fly up to around 800 nm.
