The aerospace and defense industry enters 2022 facing many of the same concerns it faced in 2021.
Graham Warwick
Credit: U.S. Air Force
A new year does not have to mean a new start. Global issues are no respecter of the calendar, and the aerospace and defense industry enters 2022 facing the same concerns as last year: pandemic recovery, sustainability pressure, superpower tensions and the use of space.
New products are not the focus for Airbus or Boeing going into 2022-— rebuilding production capacity is. But the climb is steep. Airbus closed in on its goal of producing 45 single-aisle aircraft a month as 2021 ended but faces an uphill push with suppliers to achieve its target of 65 by mid-2023 and its hopes for 75 by 2025. Boeing’s slope is steeper still, as it must first get 737 MAX and 787 production back on track after disruptions.
Their airline customers have to manage renewed pandemic challenges but remain on a recovery trajectory, although price competition between resurgent low-cost carriers and legacy airlines restoring capacity could be brutal. Against that background, sustainability pressure will only build, with the International Civil Aviation Organization in 2022 facing the imperative of agreeing on a 2050 climate goal for the industry.
Surprisingly brisk progress in the decarbonization of aircraft propulsion, in regional aviation at least, is set to continue. Flight testing is expected to advance electric and hydrogen power-trains toward the delivery of retrofitted and new aircraft by mid--decade. Airbus, meanwhile, will launch technology demonstrations aimed at moving it closer to the goal of fielding a zero-emission airliner by 2035.
In the defense arena, growing tensions between the U.S. and its allies with Russia over Ukraine and China over Taiwan carry into a new year. These are turning up the heat under U.S. fears about its eroding technological edge, most urgently in hyper-sonics, and the vulnerability of its space systems.
While the return to superpower rivalry is fueling defense modernization efforts, combating COVID-19 has imposed inevitable funding constraints. But as 2021 illustrated, the combat aircraft market remains dynamic, and 2022 will see the first flight of South Korea’s KF-21, rollout of India’s Tejas Mk. 2, the restart of F-16 deliveries and testing of further upgrades to the F-35, Gripen, Rafale and Typhoon.
A year of unprecedented activity lies ahead for the space industry, with planned first flights for no fewer than six large launch vehicles and a host of smaller systems. NASA is aiming to fly its Space Launch System and uncrewed Orion around the Moon early in 2022, even as SpaceX plans to launch the reusable Starship on its Super Heavy booster—the most power-ful launch vehicle yet built.
If schedules are kept, the year is then set to unfold in a series of first flights for Japan’s H-3, United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan and Europe’s Ariane 6, with Blue Origin’s New Glenn set to follow some time in 2023. All these next-generation vehicles are likely to reshape the launch market, both for deployment of satellite constellations and transport of humans to the Moon and Mars.
Superpower tensions and sustainability pressures are coming to-gether in low Earth orbit, where Russia’s destructive anti-satellite test in November stoked escalating concern over debris, drawing global condemnation and calls for rules on the responsible use of space and action to clean up orbit. Whether the route to the stars is per ardua or per aspera—through adversity or aspiration—may become clearer in 2022.
