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Risk assessment of ASFV via imported ingredients The uncertainty of African swine fever virus contamination in feed ingredients and the associated risk of introduction into the United States have been rethought by University of Minnesota researchers Dr. Gerald Shurson and Dr. Rachel Schambow. In this Feedstuffs 365 interview, the duo provide new perspectives on ASFV risks, describe work in this area and explain the components of the model and results obtained. Global pork demand to outstrip supply? By Ann Hess If the World Economic Outlook International Monetary Fund/World Bank Gross Domestic Product forecasts are correct, the world will need 23 million more tons of pork in the next 11 years, says Brett Stuart. That’s according to a 50-year data correlation the co-founder of Global AgriTrends has been plotting with global meat and poultry consumption rates and GDP forecasts.
In addition, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations puts out a 10-year production projection and has global pork production growing by 14 million tons, with beef increasing by 4 million and poultry 23 million tons.
“We're going to be 8 million tons short of beef, 9 million tons short of pork and we’re going to be 17 million short of poultry,” Stuart says. “If that 50-year model holds, I can't wait to look at this in 2030, but what this tells me is as a hog farmer, as a pork producer, you better be thinking in the back of your mind, how do I grow?” he says.
Where do “alternative meats” fit in the picture? Stuart says do not confuse investor appetite to own company stocks with the consumer appetite to eat the product.
“Somewhere between 3 and 5% of Americans identify as vegans … and the average vegetarian in America does not last more than one year on the diet,” Stuart says. “Now you come out with this new product. It’s very easy to sell a much-improved product to that 3 to 5% of Americans that identify vegan … go get the next 5%, I think it's tough," Stuarts says.
What are prices going to do the next 10 years? Stuart says if the projections are close, gear up for growth. “There's going to be a market out there. The question is can we access those markets we need?”
